Sunday, October 5, 2008

Playing Leapfrog.

We're at this point certainly staring square into the face of the death of the capitalist business model. It's over with, and there is no going back. For those looking for "cyclical" effects, I'd suggest not wasting your time--the wheel is broken. There will be no "recovery" and a "normal" economy in the future isn't going to resemble the one we had for the last 12 or so years in any way form or fashion.

So what ahead? Scarcity. Scarcity of credit, and money, and jobs, and resources. Capital assets will be valued by their real implicit value rather than book value--the question will be asked, what will that asset do for me? I expect one will see high valuations, for example, of small houses, and low ones of large or speculatively placed houses. I expect to see "used" but serviceable vehicles to demand high prices, but new ones hardly able to be given away. I expect to see a similar effect in jobs--those who perform jobs that do real things will be in high demand--and consultation, sales and the rest will be fat out of luck. This effect will be magnified because in this "new" economy it's going to increasingly not pay to go to work. Jobs and wages won't keep up with transportation costs, or other expenses, and new and higher taxes are on their way--else wise government will cease to operate? Over the last 6 months the numbers of baby boomers who went from "retirement incomes" to public assistance, what, tripled? Once it makes more sense and one actually pockets more money by staying home, if you have the option, and growing potatoes where there once was lawn--you'll see productivity in the economy evaporate. On and on. It's worth looking hard and long at what's up especially in a "reflexive" ala Soros sort of way.

This is why this sort the sort of task I'm taking on here is so important--at least to my mind. We need very rapidly to find new--non dogmatically or fetish driven ways of living. Hey, I've got short clean hair, I eat beef, I don't smoke weed, I do drink, I think guns are as valuable on a homestead as screwdrivers, I believe in anthropogenic climate change, I don't believe in "alternative" energies like biodiesil or whatever--on and on--and I do all of the above for the damnedest of reasons, and the rarest, it seems: THE FACTS! Unfortunately, by and large, the "progressive counter culture movement" has simply not been any of that--it hasn't been either progressive or counter culture, it's simply been reactionary, simply a movement set in opposition to one type of materialism by positing another. Well, they've lost something to push against. . .and I expect will flounder a bit.

Whatever works, and provides the best, securest, and sanest quality of life--that's what I'm about.

So, its time for those of us who are up to speed, or mostly, to play a little leapfrog. Rather than our comrades who have more time on their hands--out there finishing degrees in ecology or sustainability or some such--with the idea that they're going to work in the "sustainable business industry"--we recognize that there isn't going to be any damn such thing as industry in the future! You're not going to be able to pull a "wage" in a "career." You're either going to have to produce something of real value, like potatoes--and from that productive ability comes your resume and expertise--or you're out of luck. In fact, the real product, unlike in the past, is likely to be more valuable than the knowledge simply because of scarcity. For those of us who understand that--to know that owning a farm is going to be akin to owning a printing press printing dollar bills, we'll be and remain ahead of the game.

I've thought a lot lately about how much easier it is at sea. . .part of that is an unjustified sentiment is simply that it's a lifestyle I've already mastered and I'm taking on something new. But, sea-steading is and remains a way to get a toe hold on very little capital. Unless you can come up with the cash to purchase 3 to 5 viable acres of land with a livable structure without payments of any sort you'd be better off with the boat. Payments will kill you. Unlike capital, debt is forever. . .

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